Who else does this: central kitchen comparables

Golden Glaze central kitchen comparables

Research date: 2026-09-30
Scope: donut and bakery chains using commissary / hub-and-spoke / central manufacturing. Emphasis: what is public enough to anchor default assumptions for a 10-shop DFW donut group.

Answer

For a 7-to-10 shop DFW donut rollup, the best public comparables point to a small regional commissary as an operations play, not a brand-new industrial CML. The chain data says large systems can push 30-130+ shops or retail doors per hub, but those numbers depend on heavy route density, long-lived production management, and standardized products; for Golden Glaze, a prudent base case is one 6,000-8,000 sq ft central kitchen supporting 10 shops within a 60-90 minute delivery envelope.

The strongest public evidence is directional: Krispy Kreme and Dunkin both rely on hub/CML production to improve asset utilization, reduce duplicate store work, and support daily delivery, but neither publishes clean "labor savings vs in-store frying" or "ingredient savings" percentages. For the model, treat labor savings as an estimated 15-30% reduction in bakery labor dollars after adding commissary labor and delivery, ingredient savings as 3-8% from purchasing/yield, and waste reduction as 5-15%, with all three needing validation from Golden Glaze's own overnight baker schedules, waste logs, and route test.

Comparable systems

Ratio benchmarks

Economics and savings evidence

What chains actually report

• Krispy Kreme says the hub-and-spoke model is capital-efficient because it leverages production hubs with "largely fixed costs including rent, utilities, and labor," and increases sales per hub/profitability as more spokes are added. Source: FY2025 10-K.
• Krispy Kreme reported FY2025 U.S. sales per hub of $4.7M and international sales per hub of $9.7M; it says international illustrates hub-and-spoke benefits through largely consistent sales per hub and higher adjusted EBITDA margins despite commodity/macro pressure. Source: FY2025 10-K.
• Krispy Kreme also shows the downside: Q1 2025 U.S. adjusted EBITDA margin declined 770 bps to 6.7%, driven by lower operating leverage, U.S. expansion costs, and operational inefficiencies; McDonald's deployment was later terminated and about 2,400 fresh delivery doors were exited in 2025. Sources: Q1 2025 SEC release, FY2025 10-K.
• Restaurant365's central-kitchen guidance says multi-location operators with three or more units can find meaningful value when volume and labor savings justify the dedicated facility, but it does not publish a universal percentage. Source: Restaurant365 commissary kitchen guide.
• FORCS / restaurant-accounting guidance gives a sample commissary cost allocation of 22% raw food cost, 30% labor, and 10% overhead on a bagel transfer example, but it is an accounting illustration, not a measured savings benchmark. Source: FORCS commissary prime cost guide.

Suggested model assumptions

These are estimates, not published chain savings. Use them as defaults until Golden Glaze replaces them with shop-level data.

Cost to build and run

Build cost

Public data does not show the construction cost for Dunkin's Clearwater CML or Frederick CML. For DFW budgeting, the best available public cost anchors are commercial-kitchen buildout ranges:

• DFW commercial kitchen buildout: $250-$400/sq ft excluding equipment. Source: The Cookline.
• Dallas / Atlanta / Denver commercial kitchen construction: $275-$400/sq ft; complete commercial kitchens generally $250-$500/sq ft, often excluding equipment. Source: Modular Culinaire.
• Dunkin CML technical scope includes washdown stainless/FRP/epoxy/trench drains, hoods totaling 15,500 CFM plus expansion hoods, grease interceptors, generator, production lines, staging, sterilization, shipping, and office. Source: ARCO National.

Golden Glaze 10-shop estimate:

• Low / lean retrofit: 3,500-5,000 sq ft second-gen food space, used/refurb fry/proof/mix equipment, limited office, phased loading area: $750k-$1.3M all-in estimate. This is not directly sourced; it assumes below-new-build scope using the sourced $250-$400/sq ft DFW buildout range.
• Base: 6,000-8,000 sq ft leased industrial/retail commissary with proper hooding, grease, proofing, mixing, frying, finishing, racks, cooler/freezer, packing, dispatch: $1.5M-$2.6M estimate using sourced DFW buildout ranges before/including selective used equipment.
• High / purpose-built: 8,000-12,000 sq ft heavy washdown bakery with redundancy and future wholesale: $2.8M-$5M+ estimate using sourced $275-$500/sq ft ranges plus specialty equipment.

Operating cost categories

• Commissary rent/CAM/utilities.
• Production payroll: production manager, dough/mix, fry, finishing, packing/loadout.
• Delivery payroll or 3PL: Krispy Kreme operated integrated routes and is transitioning U.S. deliveries to 3PL carriers during FY2026. Source: FY2025 10-K.
• Vehicle lease/depreciation, insurance, charging/fuel, maintenance, racks/trays.
• Food safety / traceability / QA. A central kitchen concentrates contamination risk across every shop it feeds. Source: TransAct / BOHA central-kitchen food-safety guide.
• Packaging, cleaning, pest control, repairs, waste oil, fire suppression, hood cleaning.

Delivery radius and cadence

What is public:

• Krispy Kreme defines DFD as fresh doughnuts delivered daily to fresh shops, carts/food trucks, and DFD doors from hubs. Source: Q1 2025 SEC release.
• Dunkin Frederick distributes fresh donuts daily to 132 stores across Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Source: Frederick CML.
• Panera says fresh-dough facility truck distance limited expansion; par-baked frozen product lets it grow in cities and towns beyond that truck radius. Source: NRN.

Golden Glaze default:

• One production wave overnight.
• One pre-open route per shop daily.
• Design routes so the first donut leaves commissary after final quality check and the last shop receives within 60-90 minutes. This is an operating estimate, not a published chain standard.
• Keep a contingency path: one backup gas van, a repair SLA for EV chargers, and a manual store-level emergency fry capability for top SKUs if the kitchen is down.

Failure modes and lessons

• Freshness perception: centralization can read as "not made here." Voodoo's in-shop production language and Duck's made-to-order model show how strongly some donut brands use production as theater. Sources: Voodoo, Duck Donuts.
• Route failure: vehicle, driver, weather, road closure, rack loading, or late production can hit every store on the route before breakfast peak. Krispy Kreme's McDonald's rollout showed that expansion costs and DFD economics can overwhelm margin if not profitable by door. Source: Krispy Kreme Q1 2025.
• Single point of failure: one food-safety or equipment problem can affect all stores. Source: TransAct / BOHA.
• Overbuilding: Dunkin-scale facilities are tens of thousands of sq ft and 100+ employees/stores. Starting with a 10-store system should avoid industrial specs unless wholesale/DFD revenue is real. Sources: ARCO Dunkin Clearwater, Frederick CML.
• Underbuilding: a $1M budget may force compromises in loading, cold storage, drainage, hooding, or redundancy. Those are exactly the systems that protect morning peak execution.
• Demand forecasting: central kitchens reduce duplicate labor but can increase waste if stores lose the ability to flex batch sizes during the morning.
• Culture/labor transition: removing overnight bakers from shops changes store rhythm and accountability. A central production manager becomes a critical hire.

Recommended defaults for the savings model

• Treat 10 stores as the base load for the first kitchen, not the maximum. Design utilities/layout for 12-15 stores if the marginal upgrade is cheap, but do not buy 100-store CML capacity.
• Separate "labor savings before delivery" from "net labor + delivery savings." Delivery can consume a surprising amount of the gross baker savings.
• Add a freshness penalty toggle: if centralized delivery reduces same-store sales by even 1-3% in morning peak, it can wipe out a big piece of the operating savings. This is an estimate; no public chain source gives a clean number.
• Include a redundancy capex line: backup fryer/proofer critical spares, second van access, generator or power continuity plan, and emergency store production plan.

Sources

1. Krispy Kreme FY2025 Form 10-K PDF — primary source for hubs, spokes, points of access, sales per hub, 3PL transition, McDonald's exit, and hub-and-spoke profitability framing.
2. Krispy Kreme Q1 2025 SEC exhibit — primary source for DFD definitions, Q1 margin pressure, capex, and McDonald's deployment risk.
3. Krispy Kreme Dallas locator — confirms DFW Dallas Hot Light shop details; does not prove DFD spoke count.
4. Frederick CML manufacturer spotlight — source for Dunkin CML stores served, employees, and nearly 100 U.S. CMLs.
5. ARCO National Dunkin Clearwater CML — source for 33,100 sq ft CML physical scope and build features.
6. Nation's Restaurant News: Panera closing remaining FDFs — source for Panera FDF count, fresh-dough delivery limits, and par-baked transition.
7. Restaurant Business: Panera shutters two more FDFs — source for FDF layoffs, 2,200-unit chain size, and fresh dough process.
8. Dennis Group Maidstone Bakeries — source for Tim Hortons/Maidstone industrial frozen doughnut facility scale.
9. Honey Dew Donuts franchise FAQ — source for commissary facility mention and franchise investment range.
10. Shipley Donuts PRNewswire 2026 H1 release — source for fresh handmade daily positioning and 390+ locations.
11. Duck Donuts franchising — source for made-to-order, in-store simple operations positioning.
12. Voodoo Doughnut — source for in-shop hand-cut/roll/dip/decorate positioning and Texas locations.
13. Commissary Dallas — local DFW wholesale bakery daily supply comp.
14. The Cookline DFW kitchen buildout note — source for DFW $250-$400/sq ft commercial kitchen buildout, excluding equipment.
15. Modular Culinaire commercial kitchen construction guide — source for $250-$500/sq ft commercial kitchen construction and Dallas/Atlanta/Denver $275-$400/sq ft range.
16. Restaurant365 commissary guide — source for labor/consistency/waste benefits and "three or more units" directional guidance.
17. MarketMan commissary cost-control guide — source for bulk purchasing, standardized prep, and transfer controls.
18. TransAct / BOHA central kitchen food safety — source for central-kitchen food safety and single-point-of-failure risk.
19. FORCS commissary prime cost guide — source for example commissary allocation of food, labor, and overhead; not a savings benchmark.

What it costs in DFW

DFW central donut production kitchen cost brief

Answer

For a 10-shop Golden Glaze commissary in DFW, the model should assume a 5,000-6,000 sqft private production kitchen near Great Southwest / Arlington / HEB / Irving rather than far north Alliance. Base-case annual occupancy is roughly $14/SF all-in before utilities ($10.5/SF NNN base rent + $3.5/SF NNN/CAM estimate), buildout is $260/SF, equipment is $325k, permits/soft approvals are $8k, and ongoing utilities are $5.5k/month. A shared commissary can be a phase-1 proof-of-flow option, but it probably becomes operationally cramped once production is supplying all 10 shops every morning.

Key findings

• DFW industrial rent is still affordable by national standards: Q2 2026 DFW overall asking rent was $9.19/SF/yr NNN, warehouse/distribution was $8.99, and flex/office-service space was $12.90; Great Southwest warehouse averaged $9.15, DFW Airport $11.06, Alliance $9.34, South Fort Worth $7.34. Source: WareCRE / Cushman & Wakefield Q2 2026 DFW industrial summary.
• For small-bay/flex space that can actually become food-grade, use $9-13/SF/yr NNN base rent in the central submarkets plus $2.5-5/SF/yr NNN/CAM/tax/insurance (estimate). Industrial NNN pass-throughs commonly add $2-4/SF and industrial CAM alone is often $0.50-1.50/SF. Source: WareCRE warehouse lease types.
• A 10-shop donut commissary should be modeled at 3,000-8,000 sqft (estimate): 3,000 sqft is a dough-only or shared/phase-1 layout, 5,000-6,000 sqft supports frying/glazing/packing + walk-ins + racks + dispatch, and 8,000 sqft gives freezer/cold staging and future wholesale room. General commissary kitchens range from 1,000 to 100,000 sqft, and private commissaries are a normal fit for multi-unit restaurants. Source: TouchBistro commissary kitchen guide.
• Buildout is the real capital risk: Texas restaurant buildout benchmarks show $150-350/SF in 2026, ghost/commissary buildouts $200-375/SF, Type I hoods $15k-40k+, grease traps $3k-8k+, and restaurant permitting often 4-8 weeks before construction/inspection dependencies. Sources: Prestige 360 Texas restaurant buildout guide, Frans commercial construction cost guide, Texas A&M food processing licensing note.
• Production line sizing: one Belshaw Mark VI makes 88 dozen/hour at 120-second fry time, enough for most 10-store overnight runs if prep/finishing/packing are not bottlenecks; used Mark VI systems list around $28k-35k, while a new/expanded line with proofer, feed table, glazer, mixers, sheeter/cutter, walk-ins, racks, sinks, tables, and install should be modeled at $250k-500k+ (estimate). Sources: Belshaw Mark VI product page, Discount Bakery Equipment used Mark VI listing, Belshaw Mark VI system PDF.
• Texas food licensing is not one clean permit. If Golden Glaze manufactures packaged/wholesale food, DSHS food manufacturer licensing can apply; if it operates as a commissary/retail food establishment, local food establishment permits may apply. DSHS says complete food manufacturer applications normally take 4-6 weeks and license fees are tiered by gross annual manufactured food sales; high-volume retail permits cap around $700-773 in Tarrant/DSHS schedules. Sources: DSHS food manufacturer FAQ, 25 TAC §229.182 fee tiers, Tarrant County environmental health fee schedule, Texas DSHS retail food permit fees.

1. Real estate: central DFW industrial / flex / food-grade space

Best operational center for the named shops is Great Southwest / Arlington / HEB / Irving. Alliance is cheaper/good logistics but too far north for Dallas/Arlington/Fort Worth coverage; South Dallas is cheaper but pulls the Saginaw/Fort Worth route too far south (estimate, route reasoning).

NNN / CAM add-ons: budget $2.50-5.00/SF/yr. WareCRE says a warehouse NNN quote is base rent plus taxes, insurance, and CAM, “typically adding $2.00-$4.00/SF”; it also gives a sample $8.50 rent + $1.25 taxes + $0.40 insurance + $0.85 CAM = $11.00/SF all-in, and says industrial CAM is usually $0.50-$1.50/SF. Source: WareCRE warehouse lease types.

2. Shared commissary / ghost kitchen phase-1 options

This can validate recipes, packing flow, delivery timing, and true shop demand without committing to a $1M+ project, but it is unlikely to support all 10 shops long term unless Golden Glaze leases a private suite or takes a dedicated production room (estimate).

Phase-1 model default: $4,000/month for a dedicated shared/private commissary arrangement (estimate from DFW providers with unpublished rates + national commissary benchmarks).

3. Buildout and permitting timeline

Buildout scope for a donut commissary is heavier than normal warehouse TI because it needs food-safe finishes and production utilities: grease interceptor/trap, Type I hood/Ansul if frying, make-up air, 3-phase power, gas/electric fryer capacity, floor drains, washable walls/FRP or equivalent, epoxy/quarry flooring, hand sinks, 3-comp sink, mop sink, walk-in cooler/freezer, dry storage, pest control, production HVAC, and receiving/dispatch flow (estimate based on code-driven commercial kitchen scope).

Buildout total example: 5,500 sqft x $260/SF = $1.43M before equipment (estimate; formula). The low case should assume a second-generation food facility with existing hood/grease/power; the high case should assume cold shell industrial with slab cuts, utility upgrades, and exterior grease interceptor.

4. Equipment for a high-volume donut line

For 10 shops, the production bottleneck is not just fryer capacity; it is dough mixing/resting, proofing, finishing, packing by shop, and delivery staging (estimate). A single automated fryer can technically cover the hourly volume, but redundancy matters because a fryer or proofer failure can disrupt all stores.

Equipment model defaults:

• Low: $180k: used Mark VI/open kettle hybrid, minimal automation, one walk-in, basic racks (estimate, anchored by used Mark VI pricing).
• Base: $325k: automated fryer, proofer, glazer, two mixers, sheeter/cutter, walk-ins, racks, packing/dispatch equipment (estimate).
• High: $650k: redundant lines or larger industrial line, cold staging, freezer, upgraded makeup air/electrical, more automation (estimate).

5. Permits and regulatory path

Likely path depends on exactly what the central kitchen does:

Permits_total default: low $3k / base $8k / high $20k (estimate; city permit + health + fire + reinspection + food manager training; excludes construction drawings and impact fees).

6. DFW labor rates for 2026 model

BLS May 2025 DFW is the cleanest baseline; apply a modest 2026 premium for early-morning production, food-safety accountability, and retention (estimate).

Staffing shape for 10 shops (estimate): 1 kitchen manager, 2 lead bakers/fryers, 3-5 helpers/finishers/packers, 1-2 drivers depending on whether each van runs a route or a milk-run sequence. If shops still do finishing/proofing locally, central staffing can be lower; if the commissary sends finished donuts ready for case-fill, packing and QA labor rises.

7. Utilities and EV delivery cost

Production kitchen utilities:

• Restaurant/kitchen utility benchmarks commonly fall around $4-8/SF/year and calculators show a restaurant example at $11.1/SF/year with electricity $7.20, gas $2.80, water $1.10. Source: CalcBee utility cost per sqft calculator.
• For a 5,500 sqft donut production kitchen, that implies roughly $1,800-5,100/month at $4-11.1/SF/year, before waste/recycling and heavy fryer/proofer loads (estimate).
• Model default should be $3,500 / $5,500 / $8,500 per month for low/base/high utilities, including electric, gas, water/sewer, waste/oil service but excluding rent/NNN (estimate).

Electricity / EV charging:

• Oncor delivery charges in 2026 are around $0.060295/kWh plus $4.06/month for residential-style delivery examples; commercial delivery tariffs differ and can include demand charges above 10 kW. Sources: BKV Oncor delivery charge update, ElectricRates Oncor commercial page, Oncor tariff page.
• Retail energy offers in Oncor territory often show energy supply around 6.5-7.7 cents/kWh before delivery in September 2026. Source: PowerChoiceTexas Oncor rates.
• Base all-in commercial electricity assumption: $0.14/kWh; low $0.12, high $0.18 if demand charges/poor plan/fast charging enter (estimate from Oncor delivery + REP energy).
• Chevrolet lists the BrightDrop 400/600 platform at up to 272 miles range and BrightDrop 400 payload 3,710 lb. Source: Chevrolet BrightDrop. EVKX lists a BrightDrop 600 max-range battery at 173.3 kWh usable, 272 miles EPA, and 1.6 mi/kWh. Source: EVKX BrightDrop 600 eAWD Max Range.
• EV route energy: use 0.55-0.75 kWh/mile loaded/stop-and-go (estimate, based on 1.6 mi/kWh = 0.625 kWh/mi). At $0.14/kWh, that is $0.08-0.11/mile energy cost before charger amortization/demand.

8. Delivery drive times from a central Mid-Cities / Arlington kitchen

These are rough early-morning (3-6am) operating estimates, not live traffic pulls. They assume a kitchen in Hurst/Euless/Arlington/Great Southwest and freeway speeds with light traffic; cite links are Google Maps direction templates to verify before lease signing.

Operational note: a central kitchen likely needs 2 early routes rather than one long route (estimate): west/northwest loop (Fort Worth, Saginaw, NRH, Grapevine) and east/northeast/south loop (Dallas, Carrollton, Arlington). Finished donuts are more time-sensitive than dough balls, so the model should allow a toggle for dough-only vs. finished-goods delivery.

Recommended default assumptions

Use these as the first model defaults and let the page expose toggles for:

• Dough-only vs finished donuts vs hybrid.
• Existing second-generation food space vs cold-shell industrial.
• One route / two routes / three routes.
• Used equipment vs new equipment.
• Shared phase-1 vs private kitchen.

Sources

1. WareCRE / Cushman & Wakefield DFW Industrial & Warehouse Market Report Q2 2026 — DFW industrial rent, vacancy, submarket rents, flex rent.
2. WareCRE warehouse lease types explained — NNN/CAM add-on structure and $2-4/SF benchmark.
3. PREP Dallas, Revolving Kitchen, CloudKitchens Dallas, The Food Corridor Dallas shared kitchens, WebstaurantStore commissary kitchens — shared/private commissary options and rental benchmarks.
4. Prestige 360 Texas restaurant buildout guide, Frans commercial construction cost guide, Texas A&M licensing note — Texas buildout, hood/grease trap, permitting timeline.
5. Belshaw Mark VI, Belshaw Donut Robot category, Belshaw Mark VI system PDF, Discount Bakery Equipment used Mark VI — donut-line outputs, system components, used pricing.
6. Texas DSHS food manufacturer general info, DSHS FAQ, 25 TAC §229.182, DSHS retail food permit fees, Tarrant County fee schedule, Arlington fees — permit/license rules, fees, and timelines.
7. BLS DFW OEWS May 2025, IndeedFlex 2026 delivery driver wage report, Indeed donut fryer listing result, Glassdoor DFW baker result — wage assumptions.
8. CalcBee restaurant utility benchmark, BKV Oncor delivery update, PowerChoiceTexas Oncor rates, ElectricRates Oncor commercial, Chevrolet BrightDrop, EVKX BrightDrop specs — utility and EV assumptions.

Confidence

Medium — lease rates, permits, wage baselines, and major equipment output are well sourced; exact food-grade buildout, private commissary rents, and equipment quotes require broker/vendor calls because most DFW operators do not publish real pricing.

What would change my mind

• A broker finds a true second-generation food production shell near Great Southwest/HEB with existing grease, hood, floor drains, and 3-phase power; that could cut buildout materially.
• A Belshaw/Stewart/Moline quote shows a new production line substantially above or below the current $325k base / $650k high equipment assumption.
• Jack decides on dough-only centralization instead of finished donut production; that reduces buildout, equipment, labor, route urgency, and food-quality risk.

Recommended next action

Call 3 brokers + 3 commissary operators + Belshaw/one used-equipment dealer with the same spec: 5,000-6,000 sqft, overnight donut production, 10-shop internal distribution, fryer hood/grease/3-phase/walk-in needs, 2am-7am operations, and ask for all-in monthly occupancy + buildout constraints before signing any LOI.